Rightwingers Trying to ‘Poll’ Wool Over Our Eyes

Rightwing radio host Aaron Flint is trying to peddle a political poll he and his young GOP insider friends threw together last week.  Apparently they want to graduate from the sandbox by showing off what they think is a big kid poll.

First, let’s look at the characters behind it.  This poll is a joint effort by 47 North Communications and Northern Broadcasting (Flint got to slap his picture on it).  In other words, don’t expect any accuracy.

  • Northern Broadcasting, founded by Conrad Burns, is now run by Taylor Brown—the guy who introduced Dennis Rehberg when Rehberg announced Steve Daines could no longer run for the Senate.
  • Former Burns staffer and current GOP operative Aaron Flint has already burned through his 15 minutes of fame by suing the University of Montana as a student—a case that went to U.S. District Court.
  • 47 North Communications is sort of a consulting firm run by Jake Eaton and Dustin Frost.  Who can forget Eaton, who also landed in U.S. District Court for trying to suppress the votes of 6,000 Montanans in 2008.  With his tail between his legs, Eaton resigned, left Montana, then came back hoping nobody would notice.  And then there’s Frost, a Rehberg employee until he was put into a coma under his boss’s watch.

So are we supposed to trust numbers from these guys?  Their math doesn’t even add up.

Among a small sample of 400 “likely voters” polled, 46% identified themselves as Republicans, 36% as Democrats and 14% independents.  Not only does this only add up to 96%, it’s also inconsistent with traditional polling numbers in Montana.  A recent poll by Public Policy Polling identified a whopping 32% of Montanans as independents.

Let’s also not forget the poll was conducted with “computer aided telephone interviewing,” which usually means you get a call from a live person who tosses you into a computer system.  And then you have to push buttons to answer questions.

Also, why doesn’t this poll tell us about a matchup between the two people who might very well be frontrunners in the 2012 gubernatorial race: Rick “I’m Better Now” Hill and Steve Bullock?  Don’t tell me our GOP friends forgot to ask that question.

This isn’t the first time Republicans have tried to take a whee on our leg and tell us it’s raining.  In 2008, the Montana GOP claimed Roy Brown was ahead of Governor Schweitzer by 4 points—in response to a real poll indicating that Schweitzer actually led Brown with a 39-point lead.  We all know how well that worked out for Roy Brown.

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53 Comments on "Rightwingers Trying to ‘Poll’ Wool Over Our Eyes"

  1. Larry Kralj, Environmental Rangers | February 27, 2011 8:09 PM at 8:09 PM |

    HOLY CRAP! The Bushs and Kochs are in BED together?!!

    Dorothy Bush Koch???? WTFaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa?

    Look, folks, things is gettin’ REAL wierd out there! And just WHY couldn’t Daddy Bush tell us just WHERE he was when Kennedy was assassinated? For you see, I have NEVER met a person who couldn’t tell you EXACTLY where they were when JFK was gunned down!

    And, hmmm. WHY did JFK get whacked just SHORTLY after taking on the steel industry? WHO ordered his assassination? These are questions that really, really, REALLY need to be asked BEFORE we elect any more slimeballs in BED with the dirty fascist bastards! And Dopey’s right IN there!

    Hey, Dopey, how much KOCH money you take, boy? And WHY did you decide to run for the senate right AFTER the big Koch get togehter in Florida?

    Sumthin’ don’t smell right here, folks. In fact, smells like SH*T! I wanna know. I wanna know just WHO was responsible for Kennedy’s death.

    I think we’re gettin’ closer!

    • Larry Kralj, Environmental Rangers | February 27, 2011 8:44 PM at 8:44 PM |

      p.s. Like Molly Ivins used to say, “you gotta dance with them that BRUNG you”! Well, the Koch/Bircher brothers have brung Dopey Reeburp. Now, he’s gotta DANCE with the devil! We’ve just suffered through EIGHT LONG YEARS of Bush policies. Are you better off now than you were BEFORE the Bush/Koch years? I think not. So, in SPITE of the nonsense that Flint puts out, Montanans will do the right thing and say NO to a Koch Bros. takeover of Montana!

      Dopey, you’ve been OUTED, dude. And yes, you’re welcome!

      (p.s. and on a personal note to the Dopester: remember that time many years ago at the state fair here in GF when you and your thugs attempted to intimidate that nice little elderly couple manning the booth for I-122? Well, I DO!

      We are legion.

      We don’t forget.

      We don’t forgive.

      Sorry bout THAT, Dopey Reeburp! But hey! Maybe there’s still a Kock out there that YOU can marry! You can be a Dopey Koch Reeburp, just like Dorothy Bush Koch!!!

      • Larry Kralj, Environmental Rangers | February 27, 2011 10:11 PM at 10:11 PM |

        I’m sorry, Dopey. HERE’S he correct quote:

        We are legion.

        We don’t forget.

        We don’t forgive.

        EXPECT us!

        And you can take that to the bank, the KOCH bank!

  2. It is odd that they edited out the unfavorable Bullock match-up from the polled list. Also interesting to see who all didn’t make the cut for polling, as Bullock is clearly the only candidate of the Dem statewides with the ability to run for a higher office.

  3. Lt. Col (Ret, Army) Richard Liebert | February 27, 2011 11:27 PM at 11:27 PM |

    I find it fascinating the ‘Drugster’ hasn’t been broadcast in Great Falls for several years now, he RAISED his ‘take’ way high, and don’t trust any ‘Tea Bag’ numbers, as we’ve seen my ‘Grand Old Parasites’ contribute to RECORD deficit and start the Iraq War and FAILED to finish the Afghan War, squandered trillions
    and we lose soldiers daily, for what?

    • Richard,

      I’ve been known to have a couple beers and then read blogs too- but am trying to understand your comment. Who is “the drugster” that hasn’t been broadcast in Great Falls for several years?

      • Is obviously Rush Limbaugh. You sounded a little paranoid there Flint with the hostility of your question. Interesting…

  4. Really? Taking a poll is graduating into the big leagues? Hardly. Your post might be taken a little more seriously if people didn’t remember the poll from the liberal leaning firm PPP taken after the November elections which essentially came up with the same numbers. Plus- talk to Democratic operatives and they will tell you that the numbers match what they are tracking in their internal polling.

    If anything- the response on the Rehberg Tester numbers was: no surprise.

    On another note, I ran into you the week before last at the Coffee Shop on the House side of the MT Capitol. I meant to say hello and buy coffee, but was too caught up in good conversation with MEA MFT’s Eric Feaver and the Chamber’s Jon Bennion. Hope all is well. Had a great time doing the statewide radio talk show with the Governor after that.

    I most likely will not be able to follow comments- so if anyone wants to send me an email…you can click below.

    Oh yeah- you didn’t really need to go to Legistorm to see that I worked for Senator Burns 10 years ago. It’s in my publicly published bio which you can find by clicking here:

    http://www.northernbroadcasting.com/Home/About/Staff/AaronFlint/tabid/151/Default.aspx

  5. Also- look at Gallup’s numbers on Montana when you want to understand party ID.

    • Larry Kralj, Environmental Rangers | February 28, 2011 7:22 AM at 7:22 AM |

      Aaron, how much koch money has Dopey taken? I know, DO YOU? And why should Dopey be taking ANY koch money? How’s that Wisconsin thingy workin’ out for ya? It’s game over, Aaron. I’ll give you guys credit. You maintain a bold front, but the koch’s and their little kocks have been OUTED! The country is ON to them. It’s game over.

      It was another attempted Kock/Coup, but by chance, it was caught! We caught the kocks BEFORE they could pull another coup! And as a result, we have a chance to save the middle class AND our democracy!

      BTW, maybe YOU could explain to me just HOW, out a nation of some 250 billion people, Bush’s sister ended up marrying a Koch? Strange, very strange, doncha think? Keep it all in the fambly!!

    • Larry Kralj, Environmental Rangers | February 28, 2011 9:46 PM at 9:46 PM |

      Judy, Judy, JUDY! Judy Mars on STERIODS! What Judy did to Montana, Snot Walker and the big Kocks did to the country! Geez, and THESE dudes are the freakin’ SEVENTH richest dudes in the freakin’ WORLD ferchrissakes! One would THINK that they would be smarter than that! But alas, they’re not. Americans HATE nazi plutocrats! It’s a gut reaction to pukes who sponsor moronic brown shirts who planned to inflitrate the crowds with thugs and agent provocatuers! For billionaires, they’re dumb as dog shit too! Read’em and weep, Aaron. Read’em and weep.

      http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/01/us/01poll.html?_r=1&hp

  6. Interesting

    http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Dorothy_Bush_Koch

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bobby_Koch

    http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Robert_Koch

    It’s werid, says this Koch is a Democract, but I can’t find who his parents were, even there names….

  7. Larry Kralj, Environmental Rangers | February 28, 2011 8:06 AM at 8:06 AM |

    Aaron, maybe YOU could explain how guys worth up to some say 40 billion dollars or more are so hellbent on breaking the unions? I mean, maybe YOU could explain just HOW much money these dudes need? I don’t get it!

    “Charles and David Koch, who both rank 24th on the Forbes list of the world’s richest people with $17.5 billion each, are behind campaign donations of tens of thousands, if not millions, of dollars to Republicans leading the anti-union effort.

    “They’re the poster boys for the incredible out-sized influence that corporate America has on our government right now,” said Mary Boyle of the left-leaning group Common Cause.” From Reuters.

    Get it? That’s SEVENTEEN BILLION EACH! For a total of some 38 BIILION dollars, making the TWO brothers the SEVENTH richest people in the world!

    These are your pals, Aaron. Why?

  8. See this, Cowgirl? Remember the Broadus guy?

  9. The public policy poll categories for political affiliation were Democrat, Republican, Independent/Other. The latter category is a simplification that could skew the responses; I would not use that category. The 32 percent I/O raises a red flag for me. When you scratch an independent, you often find a closet Republican or Democrat. Some people simply don’t want to reveal their political philosophy, so they lie that they’re independents. I would not be surprised if real independents comprised only 15-20 percent of the population.

    I agree that polls conducted by the MT GOP and its fellow travelers do not have a golden reputation for accuracy.

  10. Another problem with this poll is it’s incredibly low sample size. No reputable firm I know would recommend polling only 400 people for a statewide poll, unless they wanted the numbers to come out distorted.

    • The smaller the sample, the wider the error bars and the greater the difficulty of resolving small differences. At the 95 percent confidence level the margin of error, by my calculations, is +/- 4.9 percent. For one view on how to interpret this see http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2008_08/014294.php.

      For me, the more important question is whether the sample, while small, was truly representative of the population being polled, and whether the population being polled is truly representative of the larger population. If the assumptions are not valid, or the execution of the poll is flawed, the published results may be less accurate than is suggested by the reported margin of error. I don’t know if that’s the case here.

      There were a couple of numbers that I found interesting. Forty-eight percent had never heard of Rick Hill (how quickly they forget), 69 percent had never heard of Steve Daines (running for Lt. Gov. does not boost one’s name recognition much), and 71 and 78 percent respectively had never heard of Dave Wanzenreid and Franke Wilmer. Those candidates have high mountains to climb.

      Before I discard, or embrace, this poll, I will compare it with other polls that are sure to come.

  11. “Among a small sample of 400 “likely voters” polled, 46% identified themselves as Republicans, 36% as Democrats and 14% independents. Not only does this only add up to 96%”

    Made me laugh. Funny, for a bunch of business people, the GOP sucks at math. Maybe that’s how we got into this whole Great Recession thing?

  12. A poll I’d like to see, if there were options on all of Montana’s Talk radio, ie Thom Hartmann, Randi Rhodes, Ed Schutz, Bill Press, would Aaron Flint, Limbaugh and Beck have any listeners?

  13. Wait, who did this poll, it doesn’t list a polling firm? Are you telling me these GOP operatives CONDUCTED the poll? They didn’t just contract it out to an actual pollster? This is a complete joke.

    • From the 47 North poll report:

      This survey of 400 likely Montana voters was conducted by 47 North Communications on behalf of the Flint Report. Field work for this survey was conducted by NSON Opinion Strategy.

      Since 1992, NSON has conducted thousands of successful opinion research surveys by telephone for a highly diverse clientele from many different business sectors across the United States. NSON operates its own call center in downtown Salt Lake City, Utah equipped with 150 computer-aided-telephone-interviewing (CATI) stations.

      After the calls are completed, the raw data is processed through a weighting program to insure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age, race, gender, political party, and other factors. The processing step is required because different segments of the population answer the phone in different ways. For example, women answer the phone more than men, older people are home more and answer more than younger people, and rural residents typically answer the phone more frequently than urban residents.

    • NSON conducted the poll- on the link above. (Btw- didn’t PPP robodial for their poll back in November? Did they also robodial on behalf of the marijuana groups?)

  14. Republicans don’t believe in Science

  15. We took the U.S. House, the Montana House , We will take back the U.S.. Polls or no polls. Most Americans like America and want to keep it the way it is.I.E., “conserve it”. Liberals have a self-hatred issue, i.e., amerika, capitalism,and the founders are bad.

    Guess who is going to win…..

  16. I am awaiting moderation……..

    Pay no attention to the cowgirl behind the curtain….

  17. O.K. cowgirl what now?
    Do liberals believe in free speech or not?
    you can’t just edit my comments if you do not like them and say you live in a free country….

    • I had to wait half an hour this morning, if the system busy, its busy its busy, but I can see your an important guy who wants every to jump when you bark

    • “you can’t just edit my comments if you do not like them and say you live in a free country….”

      Hyperbolize much? Cowgirl is not the sole arbiter of free speech in this country, sir.

  18. What was wrong with my previous post?

  19. The Repubies and their radio people, and whoever else can falsify poll results until they are blue in the face, truth is in elections where there is an incumbant the incumbant wins 98% of the time. Rehberg has had it easy for the last few years he was an incumbant, in 2012 he will be a challenger, and it will be tight. I just hope that the pubbies dont go to their tool box by getting rid of Indian voters, cause after all they hate Indians and probley want to nuke all seven of those reservations in this state. Or maybe they will pull a GW from 2000 and just get the supreme court to steal the election. Or maybe they will have their people counting the ballots. After all we all know how pubbies count a 1 a 2 a 7 a 1 a 2 opps I lost count.

  20. The poll is nearly impossible to evaluate for bias or lack of without seeing it in its entirety including all the questions and the cross tabulations. These have not, and I suspect will not be released.

  21. Larry Kralj, Environmental Rangers | February 28, 2011 10:09 PM at 10:09 PM |

    The Big Kocks are criminals??? Don’t take it from me. Take it from one of the Kocks!

    “William Koch, the third brother who had a falling-out with Charles and David back in the ’80s over Charles’ sociopathic management style, appeared on “60 Minutes” in November 2000 to tell the world that Koch Industries was a criminal enterprise: “It was – was my family company. I was out of it,” he says. “But that’s what appalled me so much… I did not want my family, my legacy, my father’s legacy to be based upon organized crime.”

    And THESE are Dopey Reeburp’s BENEFACTORS who Aaron Flint just LUVS! What does that make the Dopester? A criminal too? Or does he just HEART him some criminal money?

    Read, teawankers, READ!

    • Larry Kralj, Environmental Rangers | February 28, 2011 10:11 PM at 10:11 PM |

      Here’s the link. Just WHO are Dopey Reeburp’s friends? Aaron Flint knows. The BIG KOCKS!

      http://exiledonline.com/a-peoples-history-of-koch-industries-how-stalin-funded-the-tea-party-movement/

      • Larry Kralj, Environmental Rangers | February 28, 2011 10:16 PM at 10:16 PM |

        Now, if William Koch would ONLY tell us what the Big Kocks know about the Kenneday assassination! You see, folks, the Kocks are simply attempting another coup. SOMEone told the CIA to kill Kennedy. That is pretty much concluded at this point. All the evidence is there. The ONLY thing left is just WHO gave the orders? Was it the Big Kocks? Was Daddy Bush involved? (Remember, he couldn’t “remember” where he was!) We KNOW that that steel industry and defense contractors were delighted. But it HAD to be someone who claimed to HATE communism SO badly that they would do ANYthing to “save” the country! Sound familiar? It should.

  22. Hey Larry, just thought you would enjoy this, speaking of coups:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smedley_Butler. The Bush Crime Family pulled their FIRST coup attempt long, long ago.

    • Larry Kralj, Environmental Rangers | May 31, 2011 9:10 AM at 9:10 AM |

      Bob, I’m familiar with Smedley. I consider him to be one of our finest American heroes, unafraid and uncorruptable. And absolutely right about the fascist attack on America. Too bad that they don’t teach much about Smedley in high schools.

      But fascism is much on the ascendancy here in this country and around the world. It never went away, just underground for awhile. And now it’s back in a big way, and we’ve got the Big Kocks to prove it. I mean, my God, do we REALLY now have Bircherism as mainstream? Yes, we do.

      The CIA murdered Kennedy. There is no longer any doubt about that. Anyone who thinks otherwise doesn’t know what they’re talking about. That was our first coup. And all bets have been off since then. The fascists behind the scenes have been calling the shots. The military/industrial complex and their billionaire backers won. It’s game over for democracy unless the people of this country can somehow get it back. I seriously don’t know if that’s possible. We now have private armies just waiting in the wings. It’s a very, very scary time. We have become Latin America.

      And I actually do read a lot of history. I don’t have degrees in history, I just like to read it. I think it’s terribly important to realize the chronology of just HOW we arrived at this point, for many of the same characters and families are still around and in charge. The Bushes for example and all their cohorts. It’s vital to understand the evolution of our current fascism, especially beginning with our coup and the ascendancy of the CIA. Hell, even Truman warned us about this possibility.

      There are some books that I would recommend. The first, which I consider to be the most important book of our time, is JFK and the Unpeakable by James Douglass. It requires a good deal of courage to even read this book because it brings you face to face with the evil confronting us. But read it we must. Google it some time and read about this book. Read the reviews especially. And there are videos on the web of Douglas talking about the book. The evidence is overwhelming. Kennedy was murdered by conspirators IN our own government who did not like the direction that Kennedy was headed, a direction toward peace and reconciliation with our enemies around the world. Hence, they murdered him.

      And as a result, the world is a much different place. Our future was stolen from us, and many lives lost as a result of the policies that followed. Oh sure, there was a lot of profit made for the corporations, but the world has suffered greatly. This is the “unspeakable”, the evil that we dare not acknowledge, the evil that we dare not speak of. And lets face it, anyone who DARED speak it died mysteriously. Hence, many simply did not speak or tell their tales. But some did after many years had passed. And now, we know the truth.

      The only question that remains is what do we do now? I dunno. But I am a believer that we must try.

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