The latest analysis of special elections around the country shows an emerging pattern of wins that look very favorable to Dems.
The key point of the latest analysis:
Since March 1st, Democratic candidates have overperformed in almost every similar special election compared to the Democrats who ran in the same districts in 2010.
Across the nation, legislative races saw a 10-15% increase in democratic votes. Of course, taken individually these races wouldn’t tell us much about how the election cycle is shaping up, but taken as a whole they portend likely wins for legislative democrats across the nation.
What would this mean for the Montana Legislature?
Based on last years vote numbers from the Secretary of State’s website, this would translate into enough of an increase in democratic vote performance to to flip enough house seats to give the deems a solid majority in the mid fifties.
That’s not counting the conventional wisdom that says that all else being equal, a lower-profile election will produce a more Republican electorate. That’s likely why we saw such an effort on voter suppression bills in Montana this past session, and around the U.S.
But 2012 is a presidential year (like 2008) and should see better Democratic performance than a midterm like 2010, which in turn should see better Democratic performance than an odd-year special election (like the 2011 votes analyzed above). Not to mention the fact that field expertise is the strong suit of Tester’s campaign leadership.
Based on these numbers, we’ll likely see some strong candidates from the Democrats step up to run, folks that have been considering a run in the back of their minds who realize that this is their year.