Miller Campaign Touts GOP Primary Poll Results

The Ken Miller for Governor campaign today released polling results which they say shows “the Republican field tightening and Miller holding a very competitive position against Rick Hill.”

Information about the poll by Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, which was an autodial survey of 676 likely GOP primary voters, and its toplines and crosstabs can be found here, along with a press release from the polling firm itself. 

In the Ken Miller campaign email, which was sent to supporters (and is pasted below the fold), Miller writes:

We shared that Ken Miller is a family farmer, small businessman, and a grassroots conservative, and Rick HIll is an insurance company executive, former Congressman, and an establishment moderate. After providing this information, respondents chose Ken Miller with 61% over 14% for Rick Hill and 25% undecided.

Of course, that’s comparing Hill’s negatives with Miller’s positives.  Miller also points out that the poll shows Miller and Hill are the race’s frontrunners.

Interestingly, the one negative that they didn’t test (or at least they didn’t release) is the one Miller’s campaign is suspected of shopping around.

 

Dear Fellow Montanan,

Today, our campaign for Governor released a Republican Primary poll conducted by Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies. The poll showed the Republican field tightening and Miller holding a very competitive position against Rick Hill.
After a number of generic test questions were posed in order to survey respondents, we tested an informed ballot question. We shared that Ken Miller is a family farmer, small businessman, and a grassroots conservative, and Rick Hill is an insurance company executive, former Congressman, and an establishment moderate. After providing this information, respondents chose Ken Miller with 61% over 14% for Rick Hill and 25% undecided.
The race is also far from decided at this point with 52% of those surveyed remaining undecided about their choice for Governor.
After conducting uninformed name ids and a test ballot, we also tested several candidate biography points to gauge their potential impact on voter opinion. The poll heavily favored a candidate with Ken Miller’s biographical profile: 50% favored a former State Senator (Miller) contrasted with 14% for a former Congressman with Washington, D.C. experience (Hill). 72% favored a candidate who is a farmer and small businessman (Miller) contrasted with 6% for an insurance executive (Hill).
On social issues, when asked if they were more likely to vote for a candidate who has been endorsed by individuals involved in pro-life organizations (Miller), 60% favored that candidate over one who will not commit to conservative social positions.
On the question of grassroots support, 69% chose the grassroots conservative (Miller) over 15% for the establishment moderate (Hill and others). On a question of Montana experience, 75% chose someone like Ken Miller who has lived and worked over 35 years in Montana, compared with someone who recently moved back to Montana to run for Governor.
The poll also included a test of Ken Miller against Rick Hill, showing that the Montana Governor’s race continues to be wide open, but that Ken Miller and Rick Hill are favored by the likely voters as the current top contenders, with the other candidates in the race unable to break into double-digits.
If the election were to be held today, Miller would receive 13% compared with 24% for Rick Hill. The other contenders remained in single digits with Stapleton at 5%, Livingstone at 3%, and O’Hara also at 3%.
“Our supporters should be very happy with this news showing me a mere 11 points away from Rick Hill with a very substantial majority (52%) still undecided at this point. This means that an effective Miller campaign will be able to easily close this gap as Montanans become more familiar with me, my background, and my vision for Montana,” Miller said.
“Our number one job will be to raise the funds necessary to introduce me to the voters of Montana, and I am confident we will continue to convert undecided Republican primary voters to Miller supporters. We have the grassroots and volunteer base to do this, and coupled with an aggressive fundraising campaign, I know we will be able to carry our message to the people of Montana,” Miller said.
“I am extremely optimistic with these positive results showing this to be what we had already known to be true, this is a two person race for Montana Governor. It is also clear that my background fits with what the voters are looking for to be Montana’s next Governor, and people are already getting to know me around Montana,” Miller said.
“With the thousands of miles I have already traveled around Montana building our grassroots organization, it is not surprising that Montanans can relate to a small businessman and family farmer, who has legislative experience gained in the Montana legislature, and Montana common sense I earned from my more than 35 years as a Montana citizen, community leader, and businessman,” Miller concluded.
The results were of N=676 survey of likely Republican Primary election voters in the State of Montana. The interviewing was conducted July 25th – July 26th, 2011. This survey has a margin of error of +/-3.77% at the 95 percent confidence interval.Sincerely,

Ken Miller
Republican Candidate for Montana Governor
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10 Comments on "Miller Campaign Touts GOP Primary Poll Results"

  1. Wow 52% Undecided that is not a good survey for Miller, some 400 days before election LOL thats not a survey but a wish list!

  2. Kathleene Evans | July 29, 2011 6:10 AM at 6:10 AM |

    My two cents. This is actually not bad for Miller – and down right embarrassing for Hill. Sure, Miller has oversold it a bit, but Hill should be way farther a head of a wackadoodle like this and the fact that he is not is fascinating.

  3. “Interestingly, the one negative that they didn’t test (or at least they didn’t release) is the one Miller’s campaign is suspected of shopping around.”

    This poll shows Hill is vulnerable, very vulnerable indeed. If Bullock is smart, and picks a Lt. Gov running mate who can mitigate the areas where he is lacking (Otter Creek and lack of businesses experience) he could win.

  4. Derrek Halverson | July 29, 2011 9:16 AM at 9:16 AM |

    Bullock has a real opportunity to win here, and his choice of running mate could ad a boost to his chances. He should pick someone which gets him new geographic territory other than the base vote areas of Missoula and Helena. Someone from Billings or Eastern Montana would be a good choice. He might be able to win otherwise, but this is going to be a close race–it’s not worth chancing it.

  5. Bullock will get hit hard by Hill on the business experience piece – the GOP does it every year.

  6. This polling is valuable in that it shows that being an insurance industry executive, or even getting support from one, is not something Montana voters feel good about. That’s heartening to me after seeing the horror they wreaked on the so-called Health Care Reform bill. At least people seem to be realizing that this industry is a major problem.

  7. I only mean that this is one of their perennial attacks.

  8. I’ve been getting emails from the Miller campagin and to tell you the truth anymore I just hit delete. First off he hasn’t won an election in the past decade atleast, but hey neither has Rick Hill. In a normal year with a normal Republican party he would not have a chance in hell of getting over 5% of the vote. But hey same thing could be said for Sarah “the quiter” Palin. Regardless if I was a betting man I would gamble right here, right now Ken Miller loses the Republican primary for Governor and even if he does win, the Democrats could nominate a three legged, one eyed dog, by the name of Lucky to beat his butt. I will say the same for Neil Whats his name the guy running with the Senator from Whitefish, Zinke I believe is his name, So the best bet right now for the Republicans is probley Rick Hill, even though that is like digging up President Nixon giving him a pulse and having him take on Obama. Either way what a year.

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