Posted: January 30, 2012 at 6:43 pm
Polling Quick Hits
Damage Control
Public Policy Polling came out with a poll a while back that had Tester and Rehberg in a statistical dead heat. Then, the Republican political front group known as the Montana Chamber of Commerce came out with a poll, which they were forced to release, much to their chagrin, because the poll had Tester leading by five.
The Rehberg campaign needed damage control, so they had the Republican Party get a polling firm to release a poll that showed…guess what? Rehberg up by 11 points.
The poll, conducted by the firm Public Opinion Strategies for Karl Rove’s secretive organization American Crossroads, shows questionable and uncharacteristic results for the race between Jon Tester and Congressman Dennis Rehberg.
Perhaps the campaign wasn’t aware that a second poll was released today, also conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, has much different results. It shows the race much closer—well within the margin of error.
Common Ground
In addition to testing voter opinions of Jon Tester and Dennis Rehberg, the Public Opinion Strategies survey also tested current voter attitudes of Governor Brian Schweitzer, who is one of the most popular Governors in the U.S. (65 percent approve to 24 percent disapprove).
That’s something even Rehberg’s campaign manager Erik Iverson can agree on. In a television appearance, Rehberg’s campaign manager told Tom Brokaw his opinion of the Governor. Here’s the clip:
Conservation
The poll also found that Montana voters across the political spectrum – from Tea Party supporters to those who identify with the Occupy Wall Street movement – think of themselves as conservationists and support preserving Montana’s air, land, water and wildlife to protect the economy, and their way of life. The Montana results are particularly interesting. In fact:
63% say increasing the use of renewable energy will create jobs in Montana, and three-quarters (75%) of state voters indicate support for Montana increasing the use of renewable energy sources like wind, solar and geothermal from ten percent to 25 percent by 2025.
Links to all of the Colorado College, State of the Rockies polls for Montana (and other western states) can be found here.
Well I got a poll for the Denny rejects they are not going to like! News talk KVGO did a poll 2 days ago that gives Tester a commanding 33 point lead in Western Montana! Tester 66.67 – Rehberg 33.33! seems KVGO asked there listeners to go on line and vote and whoopsy Rehberg is getting smashed http://kgvo1290.com/tester-or-rehberg-who-has-your-vote-for-senator-poll/
Lets see, how the GOP Like that!
Yea and I consider this poll more a cross section of Montana then the Karl Rove GOP Poll!
The Colorado poll sampled 400 voters in Montana, and reports Rehberg leads 46.x% to 43 percent. The poll’s margin of error is 4.9 percent. But this is not a statistical dead heat. Check out the MOE table at http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2008_08/014294.php. There’s roughly a 75 percent chance that Rehberg is ahead.
Tester is doing particularly poorly among men, hunters, and anglers. That’s worrisome.
The bad news is, people liking you more than Dennis Rehberg is not the same as people liking you. The GOP Congress polls at 9% approval rating right now. I mean, twice as many people think the Loch Ness monster exists as think Congress is doing a good job.
http://www.vanityfair.com/magazine/2012/03/60-minutes-poll-201203#slide=1
This will catch up to Rehberg eventually. The man is straight up stupid.
So your citing a 2008 poll? Really?
I’m not citing a 2008 poll. I’m citing a page from 2008 that explains how to interpret the margin of error.
James if you read the article the GOP is touting they pretty much cherry-picked the people they called in certain areas of the state! They also do not seem to shy away from it being a GOP Poll… the question I really have to ask though is this!
If they did cherry pick which has always been something Karl Rove is fond of doing… how many GOP party members jumped ship, and Joined Tester?
I think they were shocked to find that they are not number one and have been blanketing the news where ever they get free publicity in Montana and Lie about the lead!Because Tester does have a huge amount of money(3 to 1)coming in from individual donations! the Majority of his campaign money is coming from people not corporations or PACS!
Individuals who are retired in this state have donated to Tester $300,000 alone, and it considered one of his greatest strengths in getting money for his campaign according to Opensecrets.org! Rehberg isn’t fooling the older people of this state or the veterans!
I am sorry but Rehbergs campaign is trying to write something in this Poll as news that just isn’t there, the numbers aren’t adding up people-wise for a Rehberg win ! He is not leading in the polls, he is just trying to tell us he is!
Funny that you only mentioned retired people and their donations to Tester. He ranks #1 in the WHOLE COUNTRY for donations from lobbyists. Also high on the list: lawyers/law firms, securities & investment, banks, PACs, insurance, real estate, casinos, and the list goes on and on. Trying to run these campaigns based on who’s taken donations from who is a lost cause. The amount of money pouring in to both campaigns is disgusting, but factually Tester is taking more money from the influence industry.
It kinda sucks to be you, doesn’t it? A Reburp supporter. Kinda like an atheltic supporter, holding a nut!
I luv how the GOP pulls Bullspit out of thin air and trys and make it stick… when more then Half of Rehbergs donations are from the very shit you speak, while tester Has 70% of his donations from individuals!
Just Retired people alone in Montana gave Tester $300,000 to Reburps $60,000 my guess is he aint real popular with anyone who owns an Internet connection, Or engages in reading(which by the way is 90% of Montana)!
Rehburgs days are over, the minute they field “Pro Tester” TV commercials from firefighters in Billings, and the numerous veterans that he has help in this state! Or from all the small Business people he help find grants for with his workshops!
And where has Denny been, either suing fire fighters, or saving christian statutes on public land! Hell that is gonna look great in a commercial isn’t it for the election!
Listen Tool your man do have a chance, go back to where you came from with those old tiring arguments that have no facts to base them!
Listen Tool, your man does not have a chance, go back to where you came from with those old tiring arguments that have no facts to base them!
I never pay attention to Karl’s polls. He roves from the truth.
The Colorado College poll employed sample sizes of 400 (which is small) for each state, but the methodology seemed sound. Rehberg has a small lead, and Tester does poorly with men and the hook and bullet crowd. One caveat is that the reported margin was 46 to 43 percent, but the remaining 11 percent were not confirmed as undecided.
In the 2006 election, conservative candidates for the senate received a majority of the vote, but Tester won because Stan Jones and Conrad Burns split the vote, giving Tester a plurality.
No third party conservative candidate has filed for the senate yet, but I expect that one will, presenting voters with at least a three-man race. That could change polling results, and help Tester.
Tester should get out from under Baucus’ thumb and do something bold, something different. This suit and tie politician routine he’s been on doesn’t fit with who Tester is and why we like him so much.
I don’t see Tester as “being under Baucus’s Thumb”. He has been his own man his entire term as Senator. On more than one occation, he has voted counter to Baucus (such as his vote to end the Patriot Act). Tester has done a great deal for the people of Montana and it is perception manipulation (like saying Tester is “under Baucus’s Thumb” and “Tester votes what Obama wants” that causes more problems than any actual facts about the man. I am a moderate conservative and I will vote for Tester. I am voting for him, not because he is a conservative (he is a moderate Democrat) but because he actually represents the people of Montana – even when that representation is not necessarily “the party line”.