Breakfast at Rasmussen’s

Insiders tell me that Congressman Dennis Rehberg enjoyed breakfast last month with the folks behind Rasmussen Reports, George Bush’s former polling operation often criticized for making “educated guesses.”

Rasmussen Reports is not Rehberg’s campaign polling firm.  So why would he spend precious campaign time meeting with a polling firm that isn’t his own?  Good question.

 This week, a rival polling firm called Public Policy Polling released a poll showing Jon Tester with a five point lead over Dennis Rehberg.  The poll, which sampled  934 Montana voters over the course of three days, showed Rehberg with a dismal 39 percent approval rating.

Lo and behold, one day later, Rasmussen Reports announced it too had a poll hilariously showing Rehberg with a ten point lead.  Rasmussen’s poll only surveyed 450 voters on one day—May 2—the day after the Pubic Policy Poll was released. Again, Rasmussen Reports is known for exhibiting “a considerable bias toward Republican Candidates.”

This isn’t the first time rightwing polls showing Dennis Rehberg ahead have conveniently appeared in Montana’s Senate race.

  • On January 30, Karl Rove’s secret organization Crossroads released a poll showing Rehberg 11 points ahead of Tester.  The timing of the release was no coincidence: It gave a boost to Rehberg only hours before he announced pathetic 4th quarter fundraising numbers, where he pulled in half of what Tester raised.  Look closely and you’ll see that the Crossroads poll itself was actually conducted between January 9-10, a full three weeks before it was announced.
  • Another Rasmussen Poll showing Rehberg ahead was conveniently released just hours after Tester formally filed paperwork to become a Senate candidate on February 21.

Am I saying that Rehberg and his rightwing pollster buddies might have a deal to cook the books every now and then to create a perception of momentum for Rehberg?  Why yes, I am.


73 Comments on "Breakfast at Rasmussen’s"

  1. Dennis Rehberg | May 4, 2012 6:58 AM at 6:58 AM |

    Can’t wait to beat Tester and watch you shed some tears.

    Take a minute and learn something:

    • Norma Duffy AKA ILIKEWOODS | May 4, 2012 7:00 AM at 7:00 AM |

      Hey Rehberg bet you a hundred you lose, Loser!

      • Norma Duffy AKA ILIKEWOODS | May 4, 2012 7:04 AM at 7:04 AM |

        Your Teapublicans wouldn’t touch Ronald if he was running today! Raising Taxes 11 times he wouldn’t have had a chance with the Norquest people.

        200 plus people kicked out of office or arrested from his administration would have lost even the moderates today!

        • Norma Duffy AKA ILIKEWOODS | May 4, 2012 7:07 AM at 7:07 AM |

          Just saying! I wouldn’t trust Rasmussen if he wrapped himself in the flag and whistled Yankee Doodle while reading that poll.

          • Larry Kralj, Environmental Rangers | May 4, 2012 11:52 PM at 11:52 PM |

            Dopey posted HIS St. Ronnie video. Here’s MINE! I report, you decide. Which is more TRVTHful?! Enjoy. (p.s. I think that it’s vitally important for any young people who read this blog to FULLY understand what a shitbag St. Ronnie the Alzheimeric was! As we have guys like Dopey re-writing history, the TRVTH is still out there, and must be told. Hence, I’m the Anti-Dopey!)


            There was nothing saintly about st. ronnie!

    • Congressman Rehberg, Welcome to the Montana Cowgirl Blog and thank you for your comments. If you have time, please take a minute and learn about the modern Republican Party:

    • Larry Kralj, Environmental Rangers | May 4, 2012 7:33 AM at 7:33 AM |

      Learn something form Reagan??? BWHHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAAAA!
      Sorry to laff at you, dude, but could you be a bit more specific? Just WHAT are we to learn from the dumbest prezidunce with the most failed policies this country ever had?! Reagan was the beginning of the end, dude. Your grasp of history is as tenuous as your grasp of firefigthing!
      Things really started going south with Reagan.

      But HEY, you said it. Now, DEFEND it! You see, what you offer up with that nonsensical video is more of the same. What you’re saying in essence is that smart people are wrong. What you’re saying is let’s return to the bad old days of the failed policies of your alzheimer in chief!

      We tried the best and the brightest. Now, lets try the worst and the dimmest! Again!

      Well, Congoman, I doubt people are gonna buy that! Only a moron holds up Reagan as a model for success!

    • I don’t want to go back to 1964, except I’d like to see you Taxed at 1964 rates.

  2. Ronald Reagan is an earth hater icon who decimated wildlands and wreaked havoc on environmental law:

    “Before delving further into Reagan’s track record, it’s worth recalling his infamous public statement that “trees cause more pollution than automobiles do,” and that if “you’ve seen one tree you’ve seen them all.”” From a 2004 post at Grist.

    Rewild the West.

  3. Consider for the moment that both PPP and Rasmussen are reasonably accurate and not inconsistent with each other. PPP surveys registered adults while Rasmussen pulses likely voters. There is always quite a large delta between registered voters and actual voters that make the effort. I suggest to just average the two polls 50-50 and go with that result. A +5% advantage to Rehberg is not out of the realm of reality. Given how Obama is unpopular in Montana and Bullock has just blown off one of his feet, generating interest by Dems to go to the voting booth is not high.

    • Larry Kralj, Environmental Rangers | May 4, 2012 9:44 AM at 9:44 AM |

      Consider for a moment that one real debate would be a possible ten point boost for Tester in the polls! I hope that Reeburp packs a nice lunch, for Tester’s gonna EAT it for him!

      You see, Craig, Dopey has a few worn out talking points and CEEment Jaysus, nothing more. And that ain’t enough. Oh sure, he might get elected in Wyoming were they like that sorta thing. But not in Montana. And let’s face it. Billings might as well be PART of Wyoming it’s so regressive!

      But I think that most Montanans understand that Tester is the real deal. He wasn’t born with the proverbial silver spoon. He’s an actual ag guy. And he’s one of us! Reeburp ain’t.

      BTW, I would like Reeburp to explain just HOW having the one percent own all the wealth in this country is such a good thing that we must continue those failed policies that GOT us here, beginning with his hero Ronnie! You see, MOST Montanans think that if the one percent don’t do ninety-nine percent of the WORK in this country, then they DON’T deserve ninety-nine percent of the wealth!

      Well, Dopey thinks they do. Now, let him explain why!

      • Larry, it won’t be the Ag vote but Butte’s deceases miners that may turn it for Tester.

        • Larry Kralj, Environmental Rangers | May 4, 2012 10:12 AM at 10:12 AM |

          Deceased miners? OH, you mean the BRAIN dead morons out there, don’t you? They’re kinda deceased! Look, ANYone who endorsed Michele Barfman for prez has the brain dead AND the dead miner vote locked UP I would think. AND, the alzheimer vote too!

          Now, all Dopey needs to do is to emulate his hero Ronnie. Get himself a good case of Alzheimers and a good astrologist, and by God he just might have a chance! And throw in a miracle from CEEment Jaysus!

          • Larry Kralj, Environmental Rangers | May 4, 2012 10:22 AM at 10:22 AM |

            BTW, I wonder if CEEment Jaysus would APPROVE of Dopey’s support of Ronnie Raygun’s satanic side? And if ya want’a TALK to the deceased Ronnie, maybe you can! HEY, anything’s possible with the satanic, right? I report, you decide! You see, it’s common knowledge that Raygun was a satan worshipper!


            • Larry Kralj, Environmental Rangers | May 4, 2012 12:20 PM at 12:20 PM |

              Here, Craig, here’s Dopey’s hero! BTW, I wonder if the boys in the Tenth Mountian Division REALLY enjoyed it when St. Ronnie laid a wreath at Bittberg for the SS?! Sure, we HONOR fallen SS Nazis in this country! It’s what we do, right?

              • Larry, that was not why the wreath was laid at the memorial wall. In Reagan’s own words:

                “These [SS troops] were the villains, as we know, that conducted the persecutions and all. But there are 2,000 graves there, and most of those, the average age is about 18. I think that there’s nothing wrong with visiting that cemetery where those young men are victims of Nazism also, even though they were fighting in the German uniform, drafted into service to carry out the hateful wishes of the Nazis. They were victims, just as surely as the victims in the concentration camps.”

                • Larry Kralj, Environmental Rangers | May 4, 2012 1:26 PM at 1:26 PM |

                  I must call bullshit on this one. Either Reagan was a complete buffoon, or a nazi lover! Those are the only two possibilities. He was actually probably both!

                  Lest we forget. St. Ronnie HONORED the SS of Germany! He was ASKED not to do so by many, many patriotic Americans who served, and by every Jewish group. Yet he did so anyway. Now, is DOPEY REEBURP an SS lover too? That certianly will get him a few votes in parts of Montana!


                  p.s. For the record, I don’t consider Nazis to be the victims like Ronnie did. I consider the VICTIMS to be victims! The man was a total piece of crap!

                  • I believe Reagan was making the distinction Darrell “Shifty” Powers did:

                    In the second-to-last episode of “Band of Brothers,” an HBO miniseries that documented Easy Company’s wartime exploits, Powers spoke on camera about the soldiers he fought and also hinted at the intrinsic tragedy of combat.

                    “We might have had a lot in common. He might’ve liked to fish, you know, he might’ve liked to hunt,” Powers said. “Of course, they were doing what they were supposed to do, and I was doing what I was supposed to do.

                    “But under different circumstances, we might have been good friends.”

                    • Larry Kralj, Environmental Rangers | May 4, 2012 2:41 PM at 2:41 PM |

                      Swing and a miss! Reagan was making NO such distinction! He was the friggin’ president ferchrissakes! And the dude wasn’t even smart enough to figure this one out? That’s real sad.

                  • Larry, the wreath was presented at the wall, not the grave site. Of the 2000 graves, 49 were SS. Like “Shifty” Powers Reagan was speaking kindly towards the 1951 German soldiers who were not SS.

                    Taking this opportunity, without provocation, to piss on Reagan’s grave when the topic is about polling is beneath you.

                    • Larry Kralj, Environmental Rangers | May 4, 2012 4:02 PM at 4:02 PM |

                      Not hardly. I don’t forget, nor do I forgive! ESPEICALLY Pubbie criminal activity. Reagan was a slimeball and a traitor. His diefication by guys like Dopey Reeburp make me puke.


                      I simply remind folks that every time that Dopey invoked the name of Alzheimer boy, I’ll be there to tell the TRVTH! That’s all. And I don’t happen to think the TRVTH is beneath me.

                    • You seem not to be able to find the handle on TRVTH and grasp at staws.

                    • Larry Kralj, Environmental Rangers | May 4, 2012 5:21 PM at 5:21 PM |

                      Straws, Craig? Naive much?

                    • Larry here’s your claim:

                      St. Ronnie laid a wreath at Bittberg for the SS…

                      That happens to be completely false as the wreath was to represent an act of reconciliation putting the war behind both the US and Germany. As you can see from Reagan’s speech he had nothing but derision for the SS calling them vilians. However, he did speak with respect for the young soldiers who were drafted into service and victimized by Nazism, the 1951 dead at the nearby cemetery. That’s the TRVTH.

                    • Larry Kralj, Environmental Rangers | May 4, 2012 5:40 PM at 5:40 PM |

                      Don’t fear the TRVTH, Craig. Reagan CHOSE to honor Nazis! I didn’t! Decent people everywhere find that repulsive and odious! But it’s who the Pubbies are! Remember Prescott?? Nazi lover extradionaire! And remember all the nazis that the CIA brought outta Germany after WWII? I know you like to consider yourself well-read. Ever read The Beast Reawakens by Marin A. Lee? The nazis never went away. The just morphed into Pubbies!

                      BTW, I find the TRVTH about Ayn Rand to be interesting too. All the little nazis just LUV them some Aynus Rant. Well I do too!


                      The TRVTH is a terrible two edged sword!

                    • Larry, repeating your lie does not make it truthful.

                    • Larry Kralj, Environmental Rangers | May 4, 2012 6:05 PM at 6:05 PM |

                      Thursday, June 4, 2009
                      Reagan at Bitburg
                      “It is out of the question for the leader of the Western world to lay a wreath in a war cemetery where Nazi storm troopers are buried. … The stated purpose, reconciliation, is being drowned in a rising flood of long-buried passions from the death camp survivors, who feel as betrayed and abandoned as they did 40 years ago. … ” – Washington Post, 23 April 1985.

                      Dopey’s hero! St. Ronnie, the Alzheimeric Hearted! Traitor. Warless hero! He was like John Wayne and Dopey Himself. They never answered the call to serve their country in time of need! They were too important to go! SOMEone had to stay at home and guard the women folk!

                    • Larry, why do you persist in that pernicious lie?

                      In addition to that lie you demonstrate flawed logic. Consider this, President Obama has been to Arlington National Cemetery and lain a wreath. At Arlington there are confederate soldiers buried there: Now don’t you suppose that out of that list of CSA soldiers some were racists? Isn’t it also very likely that some of the other soldiers buried there were also racists? Because Obama visits Arlington and participates in ceremonies honoring all of the dead, does that make him a racist or racist lover?

                    • Larry Kralj, Environmental Rangers | May 6, 2012 10:05 AM at 10:05 AM |

                      Sheesh. Come ON, Craig! Are you weak-minded? Reagan PURPOSELY went to Bitburg, in SPITE of all the opposition against such a move! It was a coldy calculated political ploy. Nothing less. Now, how does that relate to Obama? Silly, silly stuff.

                      But since you persist with nonsense, just WHAT was the purpose of the Reagan visit that demanded he show such respect to nazis? Most decent folks don’t get it, but you seem to!

                      BTW, Reagan’s record speaks for itself. What was it again, 225 criminal indictments of his folks? Yippers. He was St. Ronnie alright. St. Ronnie the crinimal!

                    • Larry Kralj, Environmental Rangers | May 6, 2012 10:20 AM at 10:20 AM |
                • Norma Duffy AKA ILIKEWOODS | May 4, 2012 1:42 PM at 1:42 PM |

                  Rehberg has done nothing for this state in years and his last email was a flat out lie about a bill he said passed in January, That has never made it out of committee called “Kids want to ride”!

                  Add to this all his lies about veterans, Wolves, Firefighters, Clildrens heath and hunger issues, Pell Grants, Women! For voting at allowing big Government to spy on ordinary people with his CISPA Ammendment votes of Aye, and for the funding of it! He has no chance, Montanans are gonna see this guy is the closest thing to a Business Corp tool and Fascist there is.

                  I meet this guy Craig, he has no business being anywwhere in Washington for Montana!
                  This is the same guy and nutcase who told me , and others that sex slave workers were scaling the border mountains around glacier and sneaking into the USA with Guns smugglers, hence the reason for the 100 mile border bill. This man is the Male Michelle Bachmann. and he has got to go!

                • Larry Kralj, Environmental Rangers | May 5, 2012 11:40 PM at 11:40 PM |

                  The CIA loved them some nazis. Still do! St. Ronnie too!


      • Rehberg couldn’t win a debate with a bowl of potato salad. He probably couldn’t even win a debate with Sen. Jim Peterson. And THAT’S sad.

    • The PPP survey’s sample size was more than twice the size of the Rasmussen’s sample. That requires a weighted average. Also, Rasmussen uses questionable methodology (

      At this point, we would be wise to infer only that there is considerable volatility in the polling.

      • Agreed. Also remember PPP polled a larger segment of women than men.

        • Norma Duffy AKA ILIKEWOODS | May 4, 2012 2:02 PM at 2:02 PM |

          As it should be because half the population in this state is female. PPP also use Cell phone calls something Rasummusen never does, and PPP calls all over the state.

          Rasumussen’s Opinion Pulse, has always carried out surveys not Polls…….. so they are not responsible for a scientific finding, or have to follow scientific criteria to support their findings. Its BS, and has been for years!

        • And PPP reported Gillan is doing 10 points better with men than women. See Flathead Memo.

          • Norma Duffy AKA ILIKEWOODS | May 4, 2012 2:09 PM at 2:09 PM |

            Thats really Cool as well for Gillian!

            Hey, I have a question for you! You think all those union workers coming to work at the Bakkens, and settling in Montana are gonna vote Republican???? I figure alot of them are gonna be able to vote come November and My guess is NO!

            • I think the 10 point lead may be a spurious polling result. Smith does better with women, and Wilmer breaks even. See my post at

              I wonder how many Bakken immigrants will have ID that qualifies them to vote in Montana.

              • Norma Duffy AKA ILIKEWOODS | May 4, 2012 2:36 PM at 2:36 PM |

                The Big question is the Undecided. Montana is not gonna start jelling till late August, and early September. Thats the way this state rolls and the Undecided is polling at 40% more then enough for anyone to get the win. I agree with you…. we need to sit and wait until after the primary to start getting corrected numbers!

  4. Craig unwittingly makes a good point: let’s get to work, Dems.

    • ObamaCare is doing a lot of Good, but Denny’s against it. Where would he be without Gov. Health care, since he has so many pre-existing conditions from his drunken accidents? Maybe its his buddies who are being arrested for Fraud?

      “Affordable Care Act, which is awaiting a ruling from the Supreme Court, “significantly increased HHS’s ability to suspend payments until an investigation is complete.”

      • Larry Kralj, Environmental Rangers | May 4, 2012 10:14 AM at 10:14 AM |

        Wonder if they snagged ol’ Annie Pukeacheck up there in the Flathead country? HEY, if ya can’t charge for PRAYING with your patients, what good is gubmint money? Right??

      • Lynn, last I checked a majority of Montanans don’t like Obamacare according to a Billings Gazette poll. Tester voted for it and recently voted against repeal. Sorta puts him out of step with likely voters.

        • I think Tester should propose some changes to Obamacare. We can all agree that some parts are terrible- like how the federal government under Obamacare isn’t going to negotiate with the drug companies like the Medicaid program does! What a load of crap.

          • HV, Obama made a deal with the drug companies to buy their tacit support. No way will that deal be upended by Tester.

              • See

                Can the “Lie of the Year” still be used to defeat Republicans?

                Democrats hope so, and a super PAC is using an Iowa congressional race to retest the claim that House Republicans voted to “end Medicare.” But we find the Iowa ads to be little improved from last year, when we labeled this claim as among the worst “Whoppers of 2011.”

                • “8% Give Congress Good or Excellent Marks:” Rasmussen.

                • Larry Kralj, Environmental Rangers | May 4, 2012 12:07 PM at 12:07 PM |

                  “Medicare would have been fundamentally changed, but by no means “ended.”

                  Fundamentally changed??? Is that not ENDING Medicaire as we know it? Well sure it is. I guess that the Pubbies think it’s OK to sell out the coming generations. I say BULLSHIT on that one!

                • Norma Duffy AKA ILIKEWOODS | May 4, 2012 2:28 PM at 2:28 PM |

                  Politifact and is biased and so was that story dude “Well, there’s a number of reasons why I arrived at that conclusion. One of the facts I pointed out in the piece was that the University of Minnesota School of Public Affairs had actually done a survey of PolitiFact, and they evaluated all 500 statements that PolitiFact had rated from January of 2010 to January of 2011.

                  And they found that of the 98 statements that PolitiFact had rated false, 74 of them were by Republicans.”


                  CONAN: And PolitiFact, as far as I know, is a creature, to use a pejorative word, of what used to be the St. Pete’s Times, now the Tampa Times.

                  KESSLER: That’s right.

                  CONAN: And I think that’s true of most of these organizations.

                  KESSLER: Right, I mean, you do have organizations on the left and the right, since there’s Media Matters, which kind of fact-checks things from the left.

                  CONAN: But other people do it from the right, as well.

                  KESSLER: Exactly.

                  CONAN: And so in that case, they’re openly partisan, but we’re talking about the people who describe themselves as nonpartisan fact-checkers.

                  Just because you describe a fact, doesn’t mean the description is accurate, or a fact in itself! This the very reason I get made at media matters, and generally don’t follow them! factcheck. org is now one of many who has fallen off the wagon of truth itself!

            • I don’t see why not. The only thing it would require is for Baucus to take his foot off Tester’s neck for a day or two.

          • Obama Care needs adjusting just like every program does. Denny Rehberg voted for the Bush Tax cuts, has had them for Ten years and how many jobs has he created?

            Mr 1% is only against the ACA because it raises his Taxes by maybe 4.7%. He’s had the best health care in the world for years paid for by us but does not want to pay his fair share in Taxes.


        • Craig, you will be covered by ObamaCare before you qualify for Medicare. Build it and they will come.

        • Larry Kralj, Environmental Rangers | May 4, 2012 10:30 AM at 10:30 AM |

          O’Bama care is a diversion, that’s all. The REAL question is whether or not Reeburp SUPPORTS the ONE PERCENT who own NINETY-NINE percent of the wealth in this country! And the answer is yes! If ya want a single issue to beat to death, THAT’S it! And it happened on Dopey’s watch. And he was its biggest cheerleader! And now, he’s gotta run on that. End of story. End of his run!

        • If the media did real coverage on the good parts of the bill, covering preexisting conditions, 19-26 year-olds, Donut hole for Seniors, even by TeaParty father says his drugs are getting cheaper

          “Put it together with polling that shows Americans overwhelmingly favor the individual elements of health care reform–like guarantees of coverage for people with pre-existing conditions–and it’s hard to make a credible argument that most Americans want repeal. As Steve Benen, who also noticed these new results, says

          I wonder what the discourse would be like if equal attention were paid to those who want even more ambitious health care reforms as compared to those who think the Affordable Care Act some sort of secret communist plot.”

  5. Gabby Johnson | May 4, 2012 9:17 AM at 9:17 AM |

    Rasmussen’s numbers should motivate Tester’s campaign — a good thing.
    Independents decide elections, and we will be hit with GOP out-of-state SuperPac TV commercial carpet-bombing, which so far have been poorly produced, poorly targeted and ineffective.
    A few precision-guided commercials pointing out the facts of Rehberg’s “service” to the state should get the point across that he’s not worthy of a promotion to the U.S. Senate.

  6. One point- Rehberg probably isn’t worried that he hasn’t been able to raise money. For one thing, he can of course dump millions of his own bucks into the race. But he won’t have to because, thanks to citizens united, third party out of state groups will buy some 40 million in ad time for him. That’s why it’s so great to see Schweitzer backing the constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens United. Everyone should sign the petition.

  7. Norma Duffy AKA ILIKEWOODS | May 6, 2012 1:00 PM at 1:00 PM |

    Denny Rehberg is at it again! He is pulled his dusty on the shelf and totally unfounded, and unproven Land grab Argument again, to stir scare the GOP masses. The Argument that died 2 years ago when he couldn’t back it up with proof.

    So why is he doing it???? Cause he doesn’t have a record to stand on! All he can do is spread unmitigated lies now in email form…….against Tester, against the president, cuz he just doesn’t have a record getting things done himself.

    Not only that but he seems to have disappeared from any commentary on his Border bill! I have yet to hear any Montana sporting groups get a word back from Rehberg’s camp, on discussing the issues of his Border Bill!

    The guys is getting loopier by the minute. His campaign emails, are just becoming Fear mongering word salads!

    This guy hasn’t done a thing for the middle class, young people, and women. In the last ten years….. Boot this Teapublican OUt Montana in 2012!!!!!!!!!!!

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