Posted: September 12, 2012 at 6:03 pm

LATEST POLL: Montana Congressional Race a Toss-Up

The latest polling shows Montana’s open U.S. House seat between Billings State Senator Kim Gillan and Steve Daines “looks like a toss up.”  As Intelligent Discontent points out, Gillan is gaining on Daines from previous polls.  The race is now a dead heat.

From the Public Policy Polling report on the poll:

The race for Montana’s open House seat looks like a toss up. Republican Steve Daines has a narrow edge over Democratic opponent Kim Gillan, 40-37, with Libertarian Dave Kaiser at 9%. Gillan has gained 3 points on Daines since our last poll of the race in the spring. Both candidates are still pretty unknown- 59% of votersaren’t familiar enough with Gillan to have an opinion about her and the same is true when it comes to 56% of voters with Daines. Gillan’s favorability rating is 22/19 and Daines’ is 22/22. This race could go either way as the candidates become better known in the final eight weeks.”

While it’s been said in the past that Daines has the edge because of his lead in fundraising, the poll is a testament to Gillan’s smart, targeted, and agressive campaigning.  Of course, the fact that Montanans don’t much like what they see in Daines doesn’t hurt either.

You can see the full poll results online here.

 

28 comments

  1. Irwin M. Fletcher

    Public Policy Polling is a group of progressive-liberal-democrats who seek to shape public opinion rather than report it. Keep believing thses polls. Afterall they were reporting that the Democrats were going to hold the US House in 2010. In case you missed it the Democrats lost big in 2010.

    • Larry Kralj, Environmental Rangers

      Oh Pervin, you SO profound…..PROFOUNDLY STOOPID! You didn’t really just treat us to a nonsensical post like this, did you? Why? Are you inbred?

    • Larry Kralj, Environmental Rangers

      Oh, Pervy, it is what it IS, dipshit! What’s that giant whistling sound? It’s Pervy whistling past the graveyard! (or Pervy whistlin’ out his ass!)

      bhahahahahahahahahaaa!

      What’s that giant metal sound? It’s the wheels coming OFF the hatefull, treasonous Teatard bus!

      And well you should be worried, Pervy. You pervs have been found out for what you are! Mittens is simply confirming that! America has had ENUFF of your hatred and treason!

      There are ONLY two groups in this country, the sane and the INsane, the patriots and the traitors! You Pubbies have been traitorous son of a bitches ever since the Dulles brothers! You’ve only gotten worse!

  2. Irwin M. Fletcher

    Dan T. according to your article, PPP is only out done in their Democrat bias by the laughable Pew Polling unit of the DNC. Read your own stuff before you make a complete donkey’s rear end of yourself. Oh wait, too late.

    • Dan T.

      Once again, you prove your lack of credibility by stating something that isn’t supported by the facts. You demonstrate in no fashion that Pew polls are in any way a subdivision of the Democratic party. You’re an idiot and every time you post, you prove it further.

  3. Irwin M. Fletcher

    From your linked article: “One of the ways that our forecast model seeks to make polling data more robust is by calculating and adjusting for “house effects,” which are systematic tendencies for polling firms to favor either the Democratic or Republican candidate.” Pew was most favorable to Democrats by a house factor of 3.2 and PPP was next at 3.1

    Lighten up, Francis.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C6cxNR9ML8k

  4. Dan T.

    You appear incapable of comprehending that this sentence does not substantiate your ludicrous claim. Therefore, there is no point in discussing it with you.

    • Larry Kralj, Environmental Rangers

      “ludicrous”?? bhwhahahahahahaha! What big word you gonna use next, Pervy, “ilk”?

      bwhahahahaahahahahahaaha!

      Pervy has a jr. high edyookayshun, and it shows! What a moron. Come ON, Pervy ol’ boy. How much of that hated gubmint money you suckin’ up, titsucker?

  5. Irwin M. Fletcher

    “One of the ways that our forecast model seeks to make polling data more robust is by calculating and adjusting for “house effects,” which are systematic tendencies for polling firms to favor either the Democratic or Republican candidate”

    They are one of the most biased polling organizations out there, according to you article, Dan T. So sorry to burst your little liberal bubble. While we are at it there is no tooth fairy either!

    • Dan T.

      You claimed that Pew Polling is a subsidiary of the DNC. Again your sentence above does not prove that. You can’t prove it, because it is false. Take off, moron, and don’t come back.

  6. James Conner

    Gillan’s campaign issued a statement calling the contest a toss-up. Presumably that’s because the 3-point difference is smaller than the 3.8 percent margin of error. The margin of error is a 95 percent confidence interval, which as Paul Krugman recently observed (http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/11/margin-of-error-error/) is a pretty tough test. What we really want to know about any poll is the probability that Smith leads Jones.

    That probability can be computed with the American Research Group’s online Ballot Lead Calculator (http://americanresearchgroup.com/moe2.html). In the case of the PPP poll reporting that Daines leads Gillan by three points, that probability is around 78 percent. That’s not a toss-up. That’s a small but meaningful lead. Characterizing it as a “toss-up” is either a misunderstanding of the poll’s results or an attempt to put the most favorable spin on unpleasant numbers.

    I still think Gillan’s in big trouble (http://www.flatheadmemo.com/archives_2012/july-sept/2012-09-05_gillans_last_hurrah.html), but this poll suggests she has a chance if she sharpens her message, hustles, and gets a bit of luck.

    • larry kurtz

      How Montanans can view the failures of the Rehberg term in the House as anything other than boulders blasted into the American stream of consciousness is nothing short of mystifying.

      The Romney campaign exposes the desire to return to the Bush years.

      Why expect an untested Daines to be an effective opposition member during another Obama term with a strengthened Democratic Senate and House?

  7. Sam_R3

    I’d say it means she has a chance. As James points out, this has always been a tough race for Dems, both because of the large numbers of GOP voters and because Rehberg was the incumbent with a ton of campaign cash–not to mention there have been some weak dem candidates as it was obviously a tough race to win. Having a chance is what we need right now. We can work with a chance.

  8. Drill Baby Drill

    Trouble for Obamacare’s champion. Derek Skees is catching up to Democrat Lindeen and has nearly as much money left in the bank as she does. Uh-oh! Looks like Obamacare wasn’t such a great campaign strategy

    Lindeen has raised $103,907 so far to Skees’ $22,532. Lindeen had $14,141 left in the bank on Sept. 5 to Skees’ $11,456.

    http://helenair.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/fox-raises-more-than-bucy-in-latest-period-in-attorney/article_f41f32fc-fd63-11e1-a426-0019bb2963f4.html

    • Kenneth Kailey

      There is no way in hell that Skees will win against Monica Lindeen. Even the Chamber of Commerce endorced Lindeen. You are once again showing your ignorance, Drill baby.

  9. larry kurtz

    Democrat Steve Bullock has pulled ahead in the race to be Montana’s next Governor. He’s at 44% to 39% for Republican opponent Rick Hill. The candidates were tied at 39% on PPP’s last poll of the contest in the spring.

    Montanans have a much more positive opinion of Bullock than they do of Hill. 43% of voters see him favorably to 27% with an unfavorable opinion. PPP

  10. Drifter

    So lemme see if I got this right. You call Daines on his granny or great-granny, or whomever benefiting from a massive federal hand-out in the Homestead Act (SOCIALIST! SOCIALIST!). The Spitoon then publishes an excerpt from your post (if your blog is copyrighted, sue its socks off). Daines keeps running that lame ad. I suspect that Steve isn’t smart enough to “represent” me in D.C.

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