Baucus v. Schweitzer, in a New Poll

by Cowgirl

You no doubt have seen by now that Public Policy Polling, a national polling firm, released a poll measuring a hypothetical Baucus-Schweitzer primary contest.  The poll shows that Schweitzer would beat Baucus by twenty points.  Nate Silver wrote today in the New York Times that such a primary face-off might present a rare situation where a primary challenge against an incumbent could significantly help, rather than hurt, a party’s chances to retain a Senate seat.

I hate to throw water on it, but my take has always been that such a matchup will never occur.  Baucus will either run uncontested with Schweitzer moving on to another career; or, if Schweitzer does decide to jump in, Baucus will jump out.  A third scenario is that Baucus jumps out even without Schweitzer running, to take a job as a judge or ambassador.  Any of these three scenarios are plausible.  That being said, the fourth scenario, an all out war, would be great news for bloggers if nothing else.

Posted: February 20, 2013 at 9:55 pm

41 thoughts on “Baucus v. Schweitzer, in a New Poll

  1. Brigham

    Silver is right, if Schweitzer runs, it significantly increases Democrats’ position in the fall (regardless of whether Baucus quits or loses). Baucus wouldn’t have to go through with the thumpin’ for Democrats to be in better position, he’d just not have to be the nominee.

    Despite the dark money ads trying to prop him up and the fact he hasn’t been contested in 17 years, his poll numbers are in the toilet.

    1. Norma Duffy @ilikewoods

      Keep dreaming Bob! All your spewing is that hatred. You tried this argument at the Intelligent Discontent Blog and got laughed off….. and got nothing here. Again, what happens if there is no replacement in name stature for democrats. Baucus has done very good things for this state.

      Wishing doesn’t win elections!

      1. Brigham

        Norma, visit reality. Poll after poll shows that Max is dead man walking. Poll after poll shows Schweitzer is very popular. Nate Silver is right, Democrats would be better off if he primaried Baucus, because he’d be the nominee. If Max is the nominee, not only are Democrats likely to lose the seat, it is actually a preferable option to sending Max back to DC.

        A Democrat who isn’t as well known as Max is still preferable to having a nominee who is as loathed as Max.

        And this century, Max has not done good things for Montana, he’s been an unmitigated disaster who gets worse every year.

        In 2006, it was great that Montana retired Conrad Burns for his corruption. In 2014, it’s time to remove from office the Most Corrupt Senator in America.

        1. Norma Duffy @ilikewoods

          Your Idea of reading Polls was so bad during this last election…. Most of Dems were on the ground laughing at you, and you want me to believe you now! You were one of the few Democrats who didn’t believe Silvers actual polling about Tester or Obama then… and you are ignoring it now!

          He has MAx Baucus up by 10 Points to anyone the Montana GOP throw at him. Learn how to read! In fact take the time to read his book.

          http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/20/can-republicans-win-the-senate-in-2014/#more-38683

          According to Nate Silver at even his worse scenario Max’s tenure Won’t mean anything. but it doesn’t stop him from being 10 points in front of anybody else in Montana.

          Like I said before, You are putting your talking out your backside as Usual!

          1. Brigham

            You don’t seem to know the difference between polls and probability.

            He doesn’t have Baucus up 10 percentage points in the polls, he only has Baucus up by 10 percentage points in probability. He’s saying Max will lose 9 out of 20 times, which is why he lists the race as a toss-up.

            1. Norma Duffy @ilikewoods

              I had this argument with you before. you still cant read Nate’s Numbers…… Good luck in your disillusionment bud, your gonna need it. At least Obama has expanded mental health… you should probably look into it!

    2. larry kurtz

      Why earth haters like Brigham want to see The Gov. live in then become tainted by DC escapes this interested party. Schweitzer said in an interview yesterday to expect “big news” in the coming week: CEO of something in his beloved state makes far more sense.

      1. Norma Duffy @ilikewoods

        My Understanding is he was hoping to run with Cuomo as VP. Since it really looks like Hillary is going to run for Prez in 2016. my guess is he is taking a post in Obamas cabinet! Or maybe running with her…. A CEO job therefore makes a lot of sense as well until its time to jump back into politics.

  2. Ben Tully

    BTW I received a PPP polling call tonight on legalizing marijuana.

    Questions best I can remember:

    Would you support a ballot initiative like CO or WA which legalized marijuana for those over 21 and required purchase in licensed shops?

    Do you think alcohol is more dangerous or less dangerous than alcohol?

    Do you think if marijuana were legalized people would drink more or less?

    Age, party affiliation, race etc.

    1. Norma Duffy @ilikewoods

      Its not gonna happen with this states current GOP Legislators. I wish it did, but the sad news is neither side is budging on tearing down walls. all the states that made it legal, pretty much decriminalized Pot first. and that would be a step in the right direction but our Medical Marijane proponents want all or nothing. Pretty damn disheartning if I say so myself.

      That means they are not giving state government a taste for the income fines, and the saving of money from less jail time. Never giving the state a positive reason to legalize it down the road!

    2. Brigham

      Yeah Ben, I got the same one. Only thing I’d add to your description was the tax revenue portion to the initial question, which makes it something of a unicorn question. Third question was pretty bizarre, wondering if it’s MTA…

  3. Elizabeth

    Isn’t Schweitzer going to be appointed ambassador to Canada next week? If so, do you think he would give up that and run for the Senate?

    1. Jan Thomas

      I bet Max Baucus is praying that’s the case. Or maybe not, maybe he is looking for an excuse to retire. Did you see the recent interview he did with the Montana press on the fiscal cliff scandal? It was mostly unintelligible, I mean you literally could not understand what he was saying.

  4. Pundet

    Ju-ju-ju-Judge Baucus? Amba-ba–ba-ssador Baucus? Please! The man can barely utter a cohesive sentence. I think you all know behind your wall here that Baucus, if he leaves office, will go to those who kept him in office and continue work for them. He’ll become a l-l-l-obbyist for PhRMA or AHIP. What do prostitutes do when they are beyond flower? They became Madams, or waste away. He’ll be US Ambassador to WellPoint or go back to his ranch to write is m-m-memoirs, only remember the boring parts, perhaps having to self-publish.

      1. Pundet

        You make as much sense as Norma. Hickenlooper is a Republican who found it easier to be elected runnng as a Democrat, a common occurrence. His nickname, well-earned, is Howdy Doody. He represents oil and gas and fracking, fights hard for them.

        1. larry kurtz

          Thank you for the compliment, Toke: would love to see Jared Polis run against Hick in the next primary.

    1. Norma Duffy @ilikewoods

      Again, Mark, You amaze with the stupidity, so glad you Moved to another state years ago. your analogies are breathtakingly Dumb!

  5. Turner

    I hope Schweitzer runs for senate in 2014. Especially since Max is now blaming Obama for the sequester.

    1. Norma Duffy @ilikewoods

      He wasn’t blaming Obama, in that interview he ran down a litany of blame. We Now know that the word “Sequester came from Boehner and his little Power point presentation over a year and a half ago.
      Another made up GOP emergency, that they can simply vote away. because it is just a plan, and not the end means of any real deal. They could just as easily write a new deal, instead of this brinkmanship between parties…. But it wont happen because no one is leading the GOP Party…. No one!

      http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/02/20/the-sequester-absolutely-everything-you-could-possibly-need-to-know-in-one-faq/

      1. Brigham

        Norma, you do realize the only reason we’re talking about the “made up emergency” is because your pal Max Baucus was dumb enough to vote for Austerity in a Recession.

        1. Norma Duffy @ilikewoods

          Starting to believe all the stories you make up On Twitter Bob????

          Your really becoming a sad sack of real information!

            1. Norma Duffy @ilikewoods

              Voted for what Bob? do you know how to stay on subject? Or is that a failing of yours also?

              1. Lynn

                “But Republicans continue to pretend that White House officials bear the bulk of the responsibility for its continued existence and consequences — that by introducing the idea into debt limit negotiations back in July of 2011, they committed the only sequester sin that matters. That amounts to hoping the very people they’re spinning will forget the sorry history of that indelible crisis. ”

                http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/02/navigating-the-sequester-the-fake-fight-over-whos-at-fault.php?ref=fpnewsfeed

    1. James Conner

      Hillary Clinton will be 69 in 2016. She has a history of health issues — and a history of running an incompetent campaign for President. Her current popularity among Democrats notwithstanding, I predict that if she is still alive in 2016, she will not run for President.

        1. Norma Duffy @ilikewoods

          Hes been picked by the old white male dems in Iowa and Ohio to run as president since that 2007 picnic. Old money and lots of power in those two states.

  6. Publius II

    If a ‘goof’ like ‘Dubwa’ – elected to govern Texas by ‘turdblossom’ Karl Rove – could become our commander-in-chief, then anything is possible I suppose.

  7. Publius II

    How about that, Max blaming the President for sequestration? Doesn’t Max have the nerve to confront BAINER?

  8. Norma Duffy @ilikewoods

    Max has been in front because he plays to both sides… Though Sometimes I don’t agree with him on issues, hes only one guy in a league with 99 more senators whose constituents all have wants like Montana…so what he has accomplished for the state and the nation…. to me has been far more positive, then I would have hoped for in these dysfunctional times.

    I heard that interview and he didn’t stop at Obama, He named the Republicans and Boehner, even people in his own party. So what are you saying everyone’s doing something but Max? Bullshit!

    No politician in these United states has been perfect, and it is totally amazing our GOP and our Left wing Emos have torn into this one man as if he alone makes all the decisions for the nation. He doesn’t, he seems to be one of the few left that will get his hands dirty.

    Pretty ridiculous I say to keep putting the blame game in his court, when he is one of the only guys who compromises to get what everyone in the country needs. Hes not just a Montana senator he is one of the nations democratic senators also.

    Then there’s this mind power he supposedly has over his staff… Where they go to work at, after working in his office, Like he is pushing buttons on a robot. Cant you hear yourselves, do you not know how crazy your stories get– day after day.

    People make their own decisions, what I want to know is why is his staffers picked out when hundreds from GOP and Dem senators have joined lobbying groups also???

    I really believe most Democrats on the far left lost there minds when we didn’t get single payer. Everyone blamed Max, when there was a committee of 7… or don’t you remember…. that one by one the GOP leaders of that gang just left that super committee hanging… hoping, they would gum up the works, by not being there.

    Those GOP leaders hoped they could bring down healthcare for all, by trying to shut it down, they pretty much left Max the Only one standing,… the one miserable guy left who got the job done best way he could.

    How selective does your memory have to be, to not see the truth???

    Bash him all you want! Keep yourselves selective in your arguments…. don’t do your homework on politics and listen to every story that would bend your ear from the extremist of our party and the dysfunctional GOP.

    I might be disappointed in some of his decisions, but I am far more displeased with the GOP not even lifting a finger for anyone but the rich and not trying to help the middle class in this country at all.

    We got better medical because of Max, not despite him. Left up to the GOP Tea partiers and Emo progs. We wouldn’t have gotten a damn thing!

    1. Lynn

      While I was upset that we lost the Public option, I understand that the Dems only had 60 votes for 72 days http://www.winningprogressive.org/democrats-had-a-filibuster-proof-senate-majority-for-72-days-during-president-obamas-first-term

      I also admit without Max we would have gotten less than we did. That said, my gripe against Max is his relationship to Drug Company Lobbyists.

      Sequester Fight:
      http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2013/02/david-brooks-obama-plan-birther.html

  9. Norma Duffy @ilikewoods

    I still don’t think he is doing anything without Obama’s Approval. The Pork in government bills is still there in various other forms for those on the right as well as the left….I think Bush/Cheney Administration sold out more than lives in a war that didn’t need to happen to big OIl…. they made secret deals with corporations to turn our country over to the very rich.

    I think Biden & Max is our Commander and chief’s best negotiators in some doozy negotiations with all the corporate a-holes.. Trying to buy our country freedoms back.

    For my two cents…. I mean that’s what it looks like more to me…. we were already sold by the last administration

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