If you read the Lee Newspapers story on who has raised how much in the race for Montana’s only congressional seat, you’ll find that Zinke, who had a hotly contested primary, raised $1.6 million for his entire campaign and has $97,000 in the bank. But the Missoulian just reported that Zinke also has $83,000 in campaign debts, which leaves him with about $14,000 to spend. To be sure, this includes $68k that he loaned his own campaign, which he isn’t obligated to pay back, but that’s a lot of money to just give up when his path to victory is anything but clear.
You’ll also read that John Lewis has raised $1.03 million for his entire campaign and that he has about $623,000 remaining in his campaign account.
While there always seem to be a few people talking around the water cooler who think it is important to simply look who has raised the most money, don’t buy it. The more important number to pay attention to is the cash on hand amount–because this shows a candidate’s ability to move voters over to her or his camp.
For some reason, the Lee Newspapers chose not to report anything from the super-PAC’s FEC report, which showed the Special Operations for Ryan Zinke America PAC had:
Beginning Cash On Hand $261,304
Ending Cash On Hand$103,535
Net Contributions $461,107
Net Operating Expenditures $496,377
Like Zinke, the SOFA-PAC spent more than it took in and has only about $100,000 left. Because this PAC has been such a key part of the race so far, it’s unfortunate that no mention of it was made in the Lee story.
It has not been a good week for Ryan Zinke, the former state legislator from Whitefish who is running for Congress. He is in the midst of a nasty GOP primary and his fellow Republicans are ganging up on him and making life very tough.
It’s good drama, and it could bode well for Jon Lewis if he beats out Jon Driscoll, as I expect he should, for the Democratic primary in the House race.
This week, Zinke was (predictably) criticized by right-wingers, heavily, for having made several votes in favor of women’s medical privacy in his time as state senator. His votes would actually reduce the need for abortion, by improving access to birth control and prevent unintended pregnancy in the first place, but facts don’t matter to his opponents, who would probably outlaw birth control altogether. (He also made many anti-choice votes.) The state newspapers had twoseparate articles over the weekend describing Zinke’s mixed abortion position and now, today, a third one has been published.
Yesterday’s piece reported that the Three Amigos–Rick Hill, Ken Miller and John Brenden, all former GOP state chairs–are slamming Zinke for being pro-choice and for having voted on occasion in favor of the environment. They say he is not a true conservative but rather (gasp) a moderate. Thus in their view Zinke does not pass the conservative purity test that we have often seen applied in GOP primaries.
To review, Zinke is in a race right now against Corey Stapleton, Matt Rosendale and Elsie Arntzen among a few others. These are all current or former state legislators.
Arntzen is said to have extraordinary personal wealth at her disposal, but if she does she clearly hasn’t spent much of it. She’s not really that visible, nor has she done or said anything to separate herself from the pack or establish a brand.
Stapleton and Rosendale each have put a fair amount of resources into the race although only one of them–Rosendale–seems to be speaking the language of the Republican base. He has an ad on TV, in case you haven’t seen it, in which he shoots a drone down with a rifle. And, Rosendale tends to come across as a lunatic, some kind of cross between a white supremacist and an inmate at a maximum security prison.
Zinke’s TV ad, meanwhile, shows him walking in a field and talking about his grandmother (and he tweeted several times this week about his grandmother) but does not position him in any way on the GOP spectrum, and does not provide the viewer any memorable visual like Rosendale does. And the narrator says Zinke is the right kind of conservative, which is a dangerous thing to say in this climate of rabid TEA Partiers when there is no elaboration. The implication of the TV ad is that Zinke is an old fashioned conservative, but that drone doesn’t fly these days among the Tea Party. I believe it could be a misstep for Zinke to have spent so much money on so bland an ad, because he should have foreseen the concerted attacks on his conservative cred, and done something more along the lines of Rosendale–something to boldly brand himself as a wingnut is needed to win the GOP primary.
Zinke has misfired before with the statewide GOP electorate, notably in 2012 when he joined up with Neil Livingstone as his lieutenant governor candidate. That campaign was never much more than a whisper.
The strange part is that Zinke is rumored to have shot and killed dozens of Iraqi soldiers in the 1990s in the first Gulf War. I would have thought that shooting and killing foreigners would earn an automatic victory in a gun-crazed GOP primary nowadays. Isn’t that what every Tea Party voter dreams of? And yet Zinke seems like he might be stalled, floundering.
Then again, without any polling data it is tough to say who is leading this race. Public Policy Polling or Rasmussen will no doubt soon publish some data and maybe then we’ll know where it all stands.
If I had to guess I’d say it’s now a three way heat between Zinke, Rosendale and Stapleton. Stapleton is running statewide for the third time; Rosendale has spent a boatload on his TV ad; and Zinke has a strong following the Flathead but the attacks against him are probably wearing him down.
For some unknown and odd reason, Zinke and Artzen, though opponents, have the same campaign treasurer.
Trude was asked how he can support a candidate who has taken pro-choice votes. Trude said Zinke has a 100% pro-life rating from his organization. The reporter asked to see the organization’s official candidate ratings. Trude said he doesn’t have any on paper, but that he keeps all candidates’ scores “in his head.”Tweet
Unfortunately, these April Fool’s Day political quick hits are all too real.
TEA Party “Operation DINO” Plot Uncovered in Multiple States
A Maryland reporter revealed this week on Huffington Post that a far-right activist plot to deceive voters is not limited to Montana but is also at work in Mississippi and Maryland. Read Jonathan Hutson’s article here.
Candidate Brags About Showing Up at Carbon County Event Advertised with Racist Flyer
When the Carbon County Republicans mailed out the invitation to attend the local Republicans’ annual “Lincoln-Reagan Day Dinner” they included treatise which claims that it is the Republican Party which fights racism and that the TEA Party movement is not indeed packed with racists–but also that President Obama is being allowed to “get away with giving the American people the finger” because: “He is black.”
So how can Obama get away with giving the American people the finger?” this letter to local Republicans reads, “The answer. He is black.” And this:
…deceived Americans embraced the progressives’ young, handsome, articulate, and so-called moderate black presidential candidate as a symbol of their liberation from accusations of being a racist nation.
You can download the garbage mailer here. The author of some of the worst material in the flyer is the group’s featured speaker, but that didn’t stop one GOP-er from bragging about being the only candidate to attend. See for yourself: